Long live our most beloved King!

On 5/12/11 Thailand went all out once more to celebrate HM the King’s 84th birthday. While millions of Thais were glued to their televisions, tens of thousand of HM’s loyal subjects lined his motorcade route just to have a once-in-a-life-time glimpse of HM as he was driven to the Grand Place for the royal audience ceremony. For one fine day, Thailand was filled with the unique love and joy that has existed between HM King Bhumibhol and his loyal subjects for over 65 years. For one joyful day, the people of Thailand set everything else aside to bask in the joy of seeing their beloved “Father” looking happy and healthy again. For one happy day, the miseries of the flood and of the political divide, which have been plaguing the country these last few months, were forgotten and left behind. In his birthday speech, HM said those in important positions knew deep in their hearts that national security was predicated on the people’s well being. Relief for flood victims was an urgent task and all parties must work together to the best of their ability for the greater welfare of the people. He also called for sustainable flood prevention measures to be taken to avoid similar crisis in the future.
 
The long drawn out agony

After 6-8 week of inundation, flood victims were pitted against FROC and BMA as well as against one another as they struggled to lower the levels of flood water in their community by constructing and/or tearing down flood dikes, by forced opening and/or closing strategic sluice gates! Contaminated flood waters in the north, east and west of the city could not be drained off quickly because canals and floodways were blocked and/or clogged. There was insufficient number of powerful water pumps. There were numerous political interferences to keep flood waters in or out of certain areas. Throughout 11/11, it was touch and go for most Bangkokians as the agonies of the flood descended here, there and everywhere. By the last week of 11/11, however, it was clear that Inner Bangkok would be spared although pipe water was badly contaminated for weeks. BMA schools were finally open on 6/12/11, with 90 schools remaining closed still. In areas where water had receded, citizens have turned up in full force on their “Big Cleaning Day” to clear flood debris and sweep the roads. Mountains of rubbish (damaged household goods and furniture) were left to pile up for the BMA to clear away. Thousands of people lost their homes and possessions. Others would have to dish out their life savings or go deeper into debts to restore their homes. Government’s financial assistance to flood victims has been too little and too late. All in all, the emotional loss of the people was far greater than their material loss.

Popularity plunge

Throughout 11/11, the Yingluck government’s flood combating schemes went from bad to worse. They committed one blunder after another so much so that flood victims had to pin their hopes on flood experts and academics for accurate and useful information on the state of the flood, on how to cope with the flood waters, and on how to clean up the mess. They had to rely on the army for evacuation, food deliveries and transportation. They depended on the media, large corporations, charity organizations and NGO’s for their drinking water, cooked meals and other essential products. Bangkokians as well as those from flood-free provinces pitched in with their generous daily deliveries of essential products. Somehow PM Yingluck and her cabinet appeared to be completely out of sync with what was going on. They seemed to be more preoccupied with getting their 2011-12 fiscal budget bill through parliament on 11/11/11. It was a relief for PM Yingluck when UN Secretary General, Mr. Bun Ki Mun, and US Foreign Secretary, Mrs. Hillary Clinton, came calling on 16 & 17/11/11 to offer their sympathy and support. On 18/11/11 she flew off to attend the Asean Summit in Bali. There, Thailand initiated Asean cooperation on disaster management i.e. flood prevention, mitigation, relief, recovery and rehabilitation. During her meeting with President Obama, PM Yingluck confirmed Thailand’s support for the American President’s newly initiated PSI and TPP schemes. In return the USA has promised to rehabilitate our Don Muang Airport as well as all the flooded police stations in Bangkok.

Reparation measures

On 23//11/11, the private sector voiced their requirements for business rehabilitation. They called on the government to implement all the promised measures right away in order to reduce the impact from the loss of business opportunities. According to their assessment, flood damage to the economy was likely to go as high as THB 1.12 trillion or 10.5% of GDP. Some 10,000 factories (including those outside industrial estates) were hit by the floods, with 660,000 workers affected (30% in automotive sector/26% electronics and electrical). The automobile industry was hit the hardest with a THB 180 billion revenue loss (300,000 units). Export was projected to go down by THB 148 billion, with the household and agricultural sectors suffering losses of THB 80 billion and THB 50 billion respectively. It will take up to March 2012 for most of the affected companies to return to normal again. With tourist arrivals down by 1 million to 18.5 million this year, a THB 5 billion fund was also sought for subsidized loans to be extended to SME tourist operators. GDP growth has been revised down to less than 2% for this year and to 4.5% in 2012. Inflation rates continued well above 4% and the Bank of Thailand’s Repo rate was reduced by 0.25% to ease debtors’ flood burdens. Meanwhile, contrary to all economic fundamentals, the SET has been climbing firmly and steadily to the 1050 level. The Baht bobbled within the THB 31 to 30.50 to USD.

Higher risks, higher costs

Since Thai corporate and insurance sectors have both never gone through the experience of a disaster of this magnitude before, there is every chance that corporate flood victims and their local Thai insurance companies, with or without reinsurance abroad, will be in for a very expensive ride. International reinsurance companies too were reluctant to continue to underwrite insurance in flood affected areas. The Yingluck government has set up a special committee, under Dr. Virapong Ramangkun, to go on road shows to assure the global reinsurance companies and major FDI investors that every possible measure would be taken to make sure such flood disaster would never happen again in Thailand! Many FDI investors, however, doubted that the country would be able to deal effectively with the next flood, let alone to implement the THB 800 billion long term master plan for sustainable flood prevention. So far the government has still to screen and approve projects under the THB 120 billion budget for the rehabilitation and reconstruction of flood damaged infrastructures. Quietly, FDI investors have been making plans to diversify to other Asean countries, not so much for fear of the next flood, but more because of the climbing production costs and the still-unsettling political environment in Thailand.

No confidence debate

While Thailand was preoccupied with the flood, DPM Chalerm Yoobamrung had managed to create another political storm when he was alleged (during a “secret” cabinet meeting while PM Yingluck was “stranded” upcountry) to amend the legal rules to give Thaksin amnesty for this year’s celebration of HM the King’s birthday. When the news broke, there were public outcry and move by the Democrat as well as the anti-Thaksinists to block the amendment. Finally, both PM Yingluck and Thaksin had to come out to confirm that his name was not on the list of 26,000 prisoners being submitted for royal pardon. On 27/11/11, just two days before the current parliamentary session ended, the Democrat party had managed to squeeze in a no-confidence debate against DPM Pracha Promnok in his capacity as Minister of Justice and head of FROC. He was taken to task for having breached the constitution (by appointing Phue Thai MP’s to government administrative positions at FROC) as well as for mismanagement, negligence and corruption in carrying out flood prevention and relief programs. As expected DPM Pracha survived the censure debate with 273 votes from the coalition government MP’s.

Check bill!

Throughout 11/11, there were rumors of a military coup and/or another bloody political confrontation in 12/11. There were talks also of impending cabinet reshuffles in 1/12 (and again in 5/12?) to shore up PM Yingluck’s faltering government. Cabinet members were told to send in their performance appraisals, based on their KPI’s?! A number of ministers were reportedly to have gone to meet Phue Thai’s real party boss in Hong Kong and Beijing. Meanwhile, a bizarre corruption scandal exploded at the Ministry of Communication when their permanent secretary, Suphot Saploam, was accused by his burglars (?!) of having THB 200 million cash stashed at his mansion! With Thailand’s corruption rating down to 80th (3.4 out of 10) this year, the Anti-Corruption Network seized the opportunity to launch their “Clean Thailand DIY” campaign. They vowed to X-ray every government procurement projects and monitor any attempt at corruption (currently 30% and over). Citizens from every sector have been mobilized to help fight the corruption that has spread like cancer all through Thai Society. In spite of all the cynicism, the optimists were saying “It is better late than never!”

 

Vongthip Chumpani
7/12/11