Long live HM the King

On 5/5/2010, all warring factions in Thailand called for a truce to take time out to celebrate (in their own way) the 60th anniversary of HM the king’s coronation. Once again HM’s loyal subjects were seen shedding tears of joy as they sat watching their beloved king on TV. Their get-well wishes, prayers and merit makings for HM have indeed borne fruits. HM appeared healthy and strong again during the traditional ceremony to mark the historical occasion at the Grand Palace. No matter how much people fought with one another, they could never forget HM’s plea for national unity whenever he appeared live on TV. Once again, the people’s faith and pride in their national heritage were restored, and national unity and reconciliation seemed to be back within their grasp! Most Thais bowed their heads to thanked heavens for giving them a loving, selfless and wise king who has always put his country above all else.
 
Another bloody April

Thailand’s messy political unrest was back on world’s TV screens again this April. When the red shirt failed to show up for the third round of negotiation on 8/4/10, PM Abhisit cancelled his trips to Vietnam (Asean Summit Meeting) and to Washington DC (world’s first nuclear summit meeting). A state of emergency was declared in the red shirt zones in Bangkok to contain the ballooning Red Shirt demonstration. On 9/4 more red shirts joined the protest after the government shut down their PTV. Soldiers guarding Thaicom transmitting station were attacked, disarmed and sent away by scores of ferocious red shirts. The next day, all hell broke loose when hundreds of soldiers, armed only with anti riot equipments, were sent in to “claim” Phanfah back from the demonstrators. Although the two sides were supposed to be unarmed, grenades and deadly war weapons were used by armed “men in black”, seen moving stealthily among the red shirts. A well known senior army commanding officer and a Japanese Reuter reporter were among 25 people killed and 900 wounded in the melee. All Songkran celebrations were cancelled. On 14/4, the red shirts decided to move their base from Phanfah to Rajprasong. As the result, all 5-stars hotels, shopping malls and condominiums in the area were shut down. Scores of countries stepped up their travel advisory to warn their citizens against traveling to Thailand. Overnight, tourist arrivals slumped and Bangkok’s average hotel occupancy shrank to 8%. Financial damage to the tourist industry, estimated to be in tens of billion, was not greater than the loss of international confidence in the country. Concerned foreign investors took turn to warn Thailand against further violence and disregard for law and order. Negotiation was the best way out.

Multi-colors fighting back

During the second half of 4/10, Bangkok citizens could no long stand by and watch. Several informal civic groups started to demonstrate daily against the red shirt movement, their demand for parliament dissolution, their violence and their total disregard of basic human rights of Bangkokians. On 16/4, some 300 policemen tried in vain to arrest 4 red shirts leaders whose dramatic escape from their hotel rooms was seen real-time on TV screens! Buoyed by their easy “victories”, the red shirts moved to expand their barricaded “territory” into Silom Road on 19/4. Suddenly thousands of soldiers and policemen appeared to take up their defensive positions in the area. That evening a Silom resident was killed and some 80 people were wounded when grenades were thrown into the commuter crowds in the Saladaeng area. On 22/4 there was another violent skirmish on the highway around Anusornsathan. One soldier was killed and scores were wounded, again by the “men in black”. The last straw came on 28/4 when hardcore red shirts forced their way into Chulalongkorn Red Cross Hospital, supposedly in search for soldiers hiding in there! The next day, hundreds of in-patients were moved out and the hospital was shut down. The unconventional and violent behaviors of the red shirts were condemned by the government, the public, human rights NGO’s in and outside the country. Overnight the red shirts’ credibility evaporated.

The Red Army

In April, people in Thailand were repeatedly shocked beyond belief by the depth and the extent of aggression, violence and bitterness of the red shirt leaders and their foot soldiers. Many have come to believe that while most Thais were hoping and praying for a peaceful national reconciliation, the Thaksinists were actually working full time to overthrow the old regime (amataya) and replace it with their own regime (ratthaimai). To topple their opponents, the red shirts, Phue Thai party, and their contingent of “men in black” have been simultaneously employed to create and co-ordinate the on-going political conflicts and chaos in and outside the parliament. The red shirt movement was setup to systematically indoctrinate and instigate both the rural and the urban poor to fight against the “amataya” government and military, supported by their own communication channels ranging from PTV, newspapers, magazines, books, pamphlets, DVD’s, Facebook etc. The whole operation was liberally funded and supported by Thaksin, his family, friends and associates in and outside the government. With so much at stake, many people believed peace and unity could not possibly return to this country without drastic reformation.

The beginning of a down trend?

Notwithstanding the loss in tourism industry (estimated to total some THB 7.5 billion in 3/10 and 4/10 because of the political unrest), the Thai economy as a whole continued to show remarkable performance in 3/10. Private consumption index rose by 8.7% yoy while private investment index jumped 18.2%, a 10-month high. There was however a marked decline in consumer and business confidence that could dampen 2Q10. Export was the major growth engine, rising 14% yoy in 3/10 to USD 16.9 billion. Imports rose by 62% yoy to USD 15 billion, with gains recorded across the board for consumer and capital goods as well as raw materials. Manufacturing index increased by 32.6% yoy, driven by higher production of electronics, automobiles and electrical appliances. Trade balance, current account balance and balance of payments remained in the black at USD 1,090 million, USD 1,734 million and USD 3,137 million respectively. International reserves rose to USD 144.1 billion. Capital inflows totaled USD 2.5 billion, including FDI worth USD 700 million and USD 535 million in equity portfolio investment. The SET closed at 763 at the end of 4/10. The Baht remained firm against the Euro but steady at THB 32.33 to USD. Interest rates were left unchanged across the board. GDP growth rate, however, was expected to plunge some 2% from the recently forecast of 4.3%-5.8%, if the Red Shirt protest were to continue until year-end! With so much doom-and-gloom reports on Greece and Portugal, Thai businessmen have started to put on their safety belts as world economy seemed to be heading for another rough ride.

Abhisit’s road map

On 3/5/10, PM Abhisit’s sprang a surprise on his friends and foes alike when he announced his roadmap for national reconciliation. Like a light at the end of the tunnel, the proposal was warmly welcomed not only by the majority of the Thais but also by foreign investors and friends of Thailand abroad. They believed PM Abhisit took this bold step solely for the benefit of country i.e. to avoid further violence and bloodshed that could easily escalate into anarchy and civil war. If agreed and accepted by all concerned, the red shirts will have to disperse immediately. The Thai society, including the mass media, will then join hands to move the country forward, to protect the monarchy, and, to ensure social justice (by offering greater opportunities to the less privileged). To ensure truth and justice, an independent committee will be set up to investigate the April crashes that resulted in deaths and injuries. The parliamentarians will work together to set up rules and regulations for political demonstrations as well as to propose constitutional amendments. There will of course be no amnesty for those with criminal charges. As expected, many of PM Abhisit’s fervent supporters came out to oppose the roadmap. They could not understand why the PM has to bow to the demand of the red shirts, whose 9 core leaders have been charged with acts of terrorism and violation of the emergency decree. Most saw no justification for parliament to be dissolved during the second half of 9/10 and for an election to be scheduled for 14/11/10. Many were worried that there would be an unprecedented use of money and violence to contest and win the next election. Others were simply fearful of the return of the Thaksin regime.

Enough is enough!

At a time like this, most Thai citizens believed they would have to keep their cool, put their own egos and self interest aside, stop blaming one another, refrain from bashing the government for failing to get the country out of this political mess and/or for not taking the course of actions they believed to be the best. Many people, however, would have to learn to base their political opinions and decisions on proven facts, rather than on here-says, biased instigations, unfounded rumors and false accusations - all of which have gone to create and intensify the current state of political confusion and social chaos. Politicians too would have to curb their greed and their urge to take political advantage at the expense of national peace, unity and prosperity. There should be no more “water melon” military, “tomato” police and “strawberry” media! With national and internal security now at stake, law enforcement would have to be prompt, unbiased and effective. Unless all this were to happen, Thailand could be in for a civil war or become a failed state before too long!

 

Vongthip Chumpani
7/5/10