Tiger, tiger, burning bright!

The Year of the Fiery Tiger has arrived and promised to be no less ferocious than the Year of the Mad Bull that has just left! Those who did not believe in astrology, seemed to be hoping and praying that 2010 would be the beginning of a better decade than the “Noughties”. Although the much feared global depression did not materialize in 09, world’s economists have been debating whether the recovery would be a W or a U shape. Thailand has certainly done well to benefit from the global turn-around but we could have done much better, had it not been for the self-inflicted political crisis that has been haunting us in the last three years. The majority of the people have become totally fed up with the power-hungry politicians and greedy bureaucrats. All they wanted was to be left in peace to get on with their lives, without having to look over their shoulders all the time, fearing another violent political break-out.
 
Happy days

With the cool weather in the first half of 12/09, the country was able to celebrate HM the King’s recovery and his 82nd birthday with great joy and happiness. Most people vowed to do what they could to bring back peace and national unity, for the sake of HM’s happiness and Thailand’s survival as a peaceful and united nation. It was anyone’s guess, how this could be done while Thaksin & Co. were raising even louder war cries for their fight “to restore democracy and justice” in 2010. The longer-than-normal New Year holiday went by peacefully enough, with 7% less yoy road accidents. Thousands went abroad, tens of thousand opted to go upcountry to pray or to celebrate with their families and friends. Thousands of those who chose to remain in the city felt comfortable enough to turn up for the countdown at various city locations. After what they have gone through politically and economically in 09, most people felt they deserved to take time out for a good celebration.

First anniversary

Except for a report-card presentation on 23/12/09, PM Abhisit did not celebrate his first year in the office. On 9/12/09, he welcomed Malaysian PM Najib Razak to Thailand and took him on a day tour of the Deep South to see how the two countries could cooperate to bring peace to the area. In the new spirit of ASEAN cooperation, Malaysia repatriated 210 Thai Muslims back to the South, and Thailand repatriated 4,500 Hmongs back to Laos. On 17/12/09, PM Abhisit attended the opening ceremony of SEA Games in Laos (where Thailand won some 80 gold medals) before attending the COP 15 Climate Change Meeting in Copenhagen, in his capacity as chairman of Asean. In mid 12/09, Thailand made the international headlines when our airport security police arrested 5 aircrew members and impounded their chartered jet plane, carrying deadly big-ticket war weapons from North Korea to unknown destination(s). On 30/12/09, the Supreme Court ruled to annul the Thai-Cambodia joint communiqué, supporting Cambodia bid to list Phra Viharn Temple as UN World Heritage site, issued by the Samak/Somchai government.

December affaires

With the economy improving by the day and unemployment figure down to 400,000, the cabinet revised and approved the extension of the economic relief package for another 3 months, until end of 3/10. Minimum daily wages for workers in 71 provinces were increased from THB 1-8. On 30/12/09 THB 8 billion was transferred to the Village Funds all over the country. In spite of the initial cynicism, fear and hesitation, altogether 433,784 small borrowers in the unorganized market registered for debt restructuring with government banks. Except for THB 20 billion, disbursement of the Thai Khem Khaeng projects has been stalled or delayed due to questionable procurement contracts. In spite of verbal assurances, the Abhisit government has yet to come up with more specific and concrete measures to assist the farmers and the private sector to cope with the impacts of AFTA that became effective on 1/1/10. On 29/12/09 the cabinet approved the revised ministerial rules (for industrial projects’ environmental and health impact assessment, as proposed by the 4 parties working committee) and gave the green light for 19 (out of the 65 suspended) Mabthaphut projects to lodge their appeal with the Supreme Administrative Court.

Firmer figures

In 11/09, consumer confidence index rose to 69. Private investment was positive. Commercial car sales were up 15.8% and cement 16.7%. Manufacturing production index shot up 8.9%. Industrial capacity utilization was 65.4%. Export totaled THB 13.7 billion, down 17.3% yoy. Import THB 12,6 billion, down 0.3% yoy. Trade balance, current account and balance of payments were all in the black at THB 1,106 million, THB 1,338 million and THB 2.341 million respectively. Official foreign reserves totaled THB 139.8 billion. Core inflation was +0.1% and CPI +1.9%. Repo and bank interest rates remained unchanged. The THB ended the year at THB 33.34/USD. Profit taking brought gold prices down to USD 1,094. Oil prices continued strong at nearly USD 80, due to severe winter temperatures. The SET ended the year at 734.54, a hefty 63.25% gain for the whole year, with an attractive PE ratio of 10.84.

Corruption scandals

Meanwhile, the Abhisit government was rocked by another corruption scandal which resulted in an unexpected departure of the Health Minister (Democrat) for negligence. However, his Deputy Minister (Bhumjai Thai) has refused to budge, notwithstanding personal implication in the scandal! An ancient case, a THB 258 million corporate contribution to the Democrat Party, was revived for the Election Committee to consider filing for Democrat Party dissolution! The Finance Minister (Democrat) too came under fire for upgrading his family members’ air tickets with their TG mileage Gold Cards!? To prevent further implications, PM Abhisit moved boldly to make sure all sensitive issues and controversial cases (e.g. the THB 120 billion Thai Khem Khaeng projects, the 65 Mabtaphut projects, the 2-digits electronic lottery contract, security in the South) were clearly accounted for and made transparent well before the no-confidence debate began. A mini cabinet reshuffle to replace the Health Minister was also done.

Red Shirts’ last Putsch?

Incensed by Thaksin’s phone-ins, DTV’s propaganda-like programs and new heavy-weight members (former PM and retired military generals) of their Phuea Thai Party, the Red Shirts have become dangerously reckless and aggressive in their threats and attacks, not only against PM Abhisit but also against key members of HM the King’s Privy Council. During the first week of 12/09, the public was treated to an unbelievable Cambodian spy soap opera, co-produced and directed by our esteemed neighbor and his honorable advisor. The Red Shirts’ Constitution Day rally on 10/12/09 failed to produce the anticipated scenario and effects. When his hope for a conditional truce (to be mediated by former PM Surayud) was unceremoniously dashed, defiant Thaksin called for another all-out war around the time that the Supreme Court was expected to rule on his THB 76 billion frozen fund. Voters, however, seemed to have had enough of Thaksin’s unsavory fights to regain power at an cost. Instead of a landslide victory, Phuea Thai won, by just 1,000 votes against Bhumjai Thai, in the last by-election in Mahasarakarm!

A snap election?

With renewed and increasingly more blatant attacks by Thaksin & Co. to coincide with the no-confidence debate scheduled for the last week of 1/10, the now well-endowed coalition parties have started to clamor again for an immediate constitutional amendment (2 instead of 6 articles and without any referendum). They impatiently told the Democrats to stop stalling or they might simply switch side (and vote with the Opposition to bring back the 2540 Constitution!?). In the meantime, PM Abhisit had the monumental task of trying to maintain and apply his “9 Codes of Conduct” to non-Democrat cabinet members when they were implicated in corruption scandals. It remained to be seen whether the Opposition would take the coalition parties to task during the no-confidence debate or simply focus only on the Democrats. True to the saying, Thai politicians have neither true friends nor permanent foes!

Ready for change

Fear of Thaksin’s return, with or without the eventual support of the Blue Shirts, continued to persist among the Yellow Shirts. They were critical of PM Abhisit’s soft approach towards the Red Shirts and his reluctance to fight harder against corruption among his cabinet members. They believed Phuea Thai has been able to win more voters, as seen in the last 3 by-elections. The PAD too have been gearing up for the “7 days do-or-die uprising by a million Red Shirts” in 1/10. Alarmed political pundits warned that Thailand could be heading for a civil war and/or another military coup this year. The “silent majority” have been urged to stand up and demand for political change. To bring about national peace and unity, better welfare and more opportunities would have to be given to the weak and the poor members of the society. Corruption would have to be eradicated rather than allowed to flourish as a way of life for Thai politicians and bureaucrats. A change has become a necessity, not an option any longer for this country!


Vongthip Chumpani
7/1/10