Happy New Year!

May the New Year bring us peace, love, good health, happiness and prosperity! Although some astrologers have been making dire predictions on the Year of the Monkey, we prefer however to maintain our optimism, with our feet firmly on the ground - as advised by our most beloved King Bhumibhol. Listening to his landmark birthday speech, we came to understand the true meaning not only of “Thosapid Rajatham” but also democracy and human rights. Long live our “Soul of the Nation”!

Ready, get set, go!

With the support of Al Gore, 2004 presidential candidate, Howard Dean, former Governor of Vermont seemed likely to beat 7 other contenders to become the Democrats’ presidential candidate. However it seemed that if the Americans would like to have Mrs. Hillary Clinton as their first lady President in 2008, they would have to vote for the reelection of President George W. Bush next year!

Caught in a rat hole!

President George Bush got his Christmas gift early this year! The world heaved a sigh of relief when Saddam Hussein, looking like a drugged caveman, was cornered and caught in Tikrit on 13/12/03. After 8 months of most intensive manhunt, a special Kurdish squad was said to have bagged the USD 30 million reward for Saddam’s head. The Iraqi Governing Council promised Saddam a fair and open trial, probably before the 1/7/03 deadline for the setting up of the new Iraqi government. Saddam’s hard core loyalists went beserk but most Arabs were humiliated by the pathetic way he gave himself up. Meanwhile American soldiers continued to be ambushed and killed daily in Iraq. Let’s hope his capture and trial would ease rather than increase terrorist threats worldwide!

Winners take all!

The French and the Germans were furious that they were left out when the Americans announced the approved list of contractors for the reconstruction of Iraq. To qualify Japanese corporations for the Iraqi tenders, Japan quickly rescheduled the dispatch of their non combat troops to Iraq. Thai troops would be reinforced notwithstanding a Kambala bomb attack that killed two Thai soldiers on 28/12/03.

Not so Merry Christmas

In Los Angeles, a strong earthquake shook the Californians over Christmas. This year, most Americans spent their holidays under the full “orange alert” for terrorist attacks. Air France had to cancel all flights to Los Angeles for 2 days because of a reported booking by two terrorist suspects. It was also difficult for investors as well as Christmas holiday revellers to ignore Al Qaeda’s unnerving terrorist threats on their websites. Then to cap it all, there was the mad-cow disease panic that resulted in the immediate banning of US meat import into EU, Japan etc.

Old lion’s olive branch

Following Iran’s dramatic example to allow full UN’s inspection of their nuclear plants, Libya’s President Gadafi surprised the world by announcing a similar agreement, after decades of isolation and nine months of secret negotiation.

EU Constitution

In mid 12/03, 15 EU members were burning the midnight oil in Brussels in vain, trying to come up with a new constitution for the EU Enlargement to 25 countries in May 04. The breakdown was caused by the objection of small countries against the “German Path” of basing EU’s voting rights on size of population instead of one country, one vote.

Nature’s terrors

In December, deadly storms and flash floods killed over 200 people in the Philippines. In China, almost 200 were killed by an explosion at a natural gas plant. The South Koreans killed millions of chickens and ducks to prevent the spread of a bird flu. Two cases of the deadly SARS were reported in Taiwan and China. On 26/12/03 a 6.3 earthquake destroyed the historic city Bam in Iran and killed over 20,000 of the 80,000 inhabitants. In respond to the Iranian Government’s appeal for international help, the UN, EU, US and other countries including Thailand rushed in their search-and-rescue and emergency humanitarian aids.

Asean Pacts

In mid 12/03, Japan and 10 Asean countries signed the Tokyo Declaration to start working towards forming an East Asian Community - EAC that “share the spirit of mutual understanding and upholding Asian traditions and values, while respecting universal rules and principles”. Asean-Japan FTA would be completed by 2012. Japan promised a USD 1.5 billion development fund for GMS-Greater Mekong Sub-region in the next 3 years. On 15/12/03, Thailand hosted an international meeting for representatives from 21 countries to hear Myanmar’s proposed “road map” to democracy.

So ended 2003

With American recovery well on track, the Dow Jones broke the psychological barrier and hit one new high after another to end the month firmly above the 10,000 level. The Yen and the Euro were firm at 107 and 1.24 levels and remained too strong for comfort. Because of their globally diversified business and production base, Japan was not hurting as much as the Euro Land whose exporters had opted to remain within “Fortress Europe”. Gold remained strong well above the USD 400 level. Oil and other commodity prices continued their up-trend, reflecting the greenback’s further weakness.

It’s the economy, stupid!

2003 was a remarkable year for Thailand. All key economic indicators had gone from strength to strength. The SET ended the year with a bang at the 750 level. The THB remained strong at THB 39.50 level. Interest and inflation rates continued at historical lows. Consumer’s confidence and their holiday spending soared to 7 year highs. As the TRT Party geared up to win their “avalanche” victory (with over 400 MP’s) in the 11/04 national election, old timers were left speechless by PM Thaksin’s declaration that “Democracy is nothing more than a tool for progress and well being of the country”! Voters could hardly hear the voice “crying in the wilderness” for a total revision and modification of the present Constitution for more effective “checks and balances system! Good luck to us all in Thailand 2004!

Vongthip Chumpani
1/1/04